Precipitation over southern Africa: is there consensus among global climate models (GCMs), regional climate models (RCMs) and observational data?

Abstract. The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts climate change and projected experience severe precipitation shortages in coming decades. Ensuring that our modeling tools are fit for purpose assessing these changes critical. In this work we compare a range satellite products along with gauge-based datasets. Additionally, investigate behavior regional simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) – domain, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 6 (CMIP6). We identify considerable variability standard deviation between merge rain gauges do not, during rainy season (October–March), indicating high observational uncertainty specific regions over SAF. Good agreement both spatial pattern strength calculated trends found products, however. Both CORDEX-Africa CMIP ensembles underestimate observed analysis period. CMIP6 ensemble displayed persistent drying trends, direct contrast observations. exhibited improved performance compared their forcing (CMIP5), when annual cycle extreme indices were examined, confirming added value higher-resolution simulations. similar CMIP5, but reducing slightly spread. However, show reproduction some key SAF phenomena, like Angola Low (which exerts strong influence on precipitation), still poses challenge global models. This likely result complex climatic processes take place. Improvements networks (both situ satellite) as well continued advancements high-resolution will be critical, order develop robust assessment Africa.